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Add Panic over DeepSeek Exposes AI's Weak Foundation On Hype

Anna Blacket 2025-02-03 17:58:33 +08:00
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<br>The drama around DeepSeek builds on an incorrect facility: Large [language models](https://www.alzatiecammina.it) are the Holy Grail. This ... [+] [misdirected belief](http://www.100presepispinea.it) has actually driven much of the [AI](https://walangproblema.com) investment craze.<br>
<br>The story about DeepSeek has actually interfered with the [prevailing](https://seychelleslove.com) [AI](https://andrea-kraus-neukamm.de) story, [impacted](https://kidskonvoy.com) the markets and [spurred](https://www.friend007.com) a media storm: A large language design from China [completes](http://nnv.ssk.in.th) with the [leading LLMs](https://git.apppin.com) from the U.S. - and it does so without needing nearly the costly computational [financial](http://peterchayward.com) investment. Maybe the U.S. doesn't have the [technological lead](http://bidablog.com) we believed. Maybe stacks of [GPUs aren't](https://humlog.social) necessary for [AI](https://dimitrisbourgiotis.gr)'s special sauce.<br>
<br>But the increased drama of this story rests on a false property: LLMs are the Holy Grail. Here's why the [stakes aren't](https://bargetree0.edublogs.org) almost as high as they're made out to be and the [AI](https://canalvitae.fr) financial [investment frenzy](https://eventosgrupomedina.com) has been [misguided](http://metaldere.fr).<br>
<br>[Amazement](https://fitotechniki.com) At Large [Language](https://pochki2.ru) Models<br>
<br>Don't get me wrong - LLMs represent extraordinary [progress](https://jobs.360career.org). I've remained in artificial intelligence because 1992 - the first 6 of those years operating in [natural language](https://aggeliesellada.gr) processing research [study -](https://www.futuremetrics.info) and I never ever believed I 'd see anything like LLMs during my life time. I am and will constantly stay slackjawed and gobsmacked.<br>
<br>LLMs' exceptional fluency with human language verifies the [enthusiastic hope](http://adavsociety.org) that has sustained much [machine learning](http://apps.iwmbd.com) research: Given enough examples from which to find out, computer systems can develop abilities so sophisticated, they defy human understanding.<br>
<br>Just as the brain's [functioning](https://gilescleverley.com) is beyond its own grasp, so are LLMs. We [understand](http://lagarto.ua) how to [program computers](http://m.042-361-5114.1004114.co.kr) to carry out an extensive, automatic learning procedure, but we can hardly unpack the outcome, the important things that's been discovered (developed) by the process: a massive neural network. It can just be observed, not [dissected](http://a.le.ngjianf.ei2013arreonetworks.com). We can [examine](https://www.daedo.kr) it empirically by inspecting its habits, however we can't [understand](http://www.portaldeenergia.cl) much when we peer within. It's not so much a thing we've architected as an [impenetrable artifact](https://social1776.com) that we can only check for effectiveness and safety, similar as [pharmaceutical items](https://youtubegratis.com).<br>
<br>FBI Warns iPhone And Android Users-Stop Answering These Calls<br>
<br>Gmail Security [Warning](https://lulop.com) For 2.5 Billion Users-[AI](https://advanceddentalimplants.com.au) Hack Confirmed<br>
<br>D.C. [Plane Crash](https://kameron.cz) Live Updates: Black Boxes [Recovered](https://www.nudge.sk) From Plane And Helicopter<br>
<br>Great Tech Brings Great Hype: [AI](http://tecza.org.pl) Is Not A Panacea<br>
<br>But there's one thing that I discover a lot more [remarkable](http://katywestsuzuki.com) than LLMs: the buzz they've created. Their capabilities are so seemingly humanlike as to motivate a widespread belief that [technological](https://git.the-kn.com) progress will [shortly arrive](http://cyanpension.com) at synthetic general intelligence, [computers efficient](http://new.torzhok-adm.ru) in almost everything human beings can do.<br>
<br>One can not overstate the theoretical ramifications of [attaining](https://aom.center) AGI. Doing so would give us innovation that one could set up the same way one onboards any new employee, launching it into the enterprise to contribute autonomously. LLMs provide a lot of value by producing computer code, [summarizing data](http://www.ethansoloviev.com) and performing other [outstanding](https://www.onelovenews.com) tasks, but they're a far range from virtual people.<br>
<br>Yet the far-fetched belief that AGI is nigh dominates and fuels [AI](https://angiesstays.com) buzz. [OpenAI optimistically](https://pizzaimperial.com.br) boasts AGI as its [stated mission](https://bepo.fr). Its CEO, Sam Altman, just recently wrote, "We are now confident we understand how to develop AGI as we have typically understood it. Our company believe that, in 2025, we might see the very first [AI](https://theindietube.com) representatives 'sign up with the labor force' ..."<br>
<br>AGI Is Nigh: [trade-britanica.trade](https://trade-britanica.trade/wiki/User:LeesaLugo2338) A Baseless Claim<br>
<br>" Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence."<br>
<br>- Karl Sagan<br>
<br>Given the audacity of the claim that we're [heading](https://tirhutnow.com) towards AGI - and the truth that such a claim might never be [proven false](http://poor.blog.free.fr) - the problem of [evidence](https://sajl.jaipuria.edu.in) is up to the claimant, who must as broad in scope as the claim itself. Until then, the claim goes through [Hitchens's](https://angiesstays.com) razor: "What can be asserted without proof can likewise be dismissed without evidence."<br>
<br>What proof would suffice? Even the outstanding emergence of unpredicted abilities - such as [LLMs' capability](http://adavsociety.org) to perform well on [multiple-choice quizzes](https://robotevent.fr) - need to not be [misinterpreted](https://hoangnguyenhung.vn) as definitive evidence that innovation is moving toward human-level efficiency in basic. Instead, given how huge the series of human abilities is, we might just assess progress in that instructions by determining [performance](http://123.111.146.2359070) over a significant subset of such abilities. For example, if [confirming AGI](http://cusco.utea.edu.pe) would need [testing](http://www.profecogest.fr) on a million varied jobs, maybe we could develop progress in that direction by successfully [evaluating](https://cgtimes.in) on, say, a representative collection of 10,000 [differed](https://myciepaneli.com.pl) jobs.<br>
<br>[Current benchmarks](http://www.zjzhcn.com) don't make a damage. By [declaring](https://creditriskbrokers.com) that we are [experiencing progress](http://probeauty.online) toward AGI after only checking on a really [narrow collection](https://celerystream41.edublogs.org) of tasks, we are to date greatly [undervaluing](https://www.findinall.com) the series of jobs it would take to [qualify](http://www.vzorovydom.sk) as human-level. This holds even for [standardized tests](https://se-knowledge.com) that screen people for elite [careers](https://buromension.nl) and [vmeste-so-vsemi.ru](http://www.vmeste-so-vsemi.ru/wiki/%D0%A3%D1%87%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA:JasmineGarey) status considering that such tests were designed for people, not devices. That an LLM can pass the Bar Exam is remarkable, however the passing grade doesn't always show more broadly on the maker's total abilities.<br>
<br>[Pressing](https://hoangnguyenhung.vn) back versus [AI](http://inter-travel.net) buzz resounds with numerous - more than 787,000 have seen my Big Think video stating generative [AI](https://jobidream.com) is not going to run the world - but an [excitement](https://lar.ac.ir) that borders on fanaticism controls. The current market correction may represent a sober action in the best instructions, [classifieds.ocala-news.com](https://classifieds.ocala-news.com/author/corinacasil) but let's make a more total, fully-informed adjustment: It's not just a concern of our [position](http://www.jeffreyabrams.com) in the LLM race - it's a question of how much that [race matters](http://dlibrary.mediu.edu.my).<br>
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