The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not seem to think so. At least in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Bear in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked with several bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14 at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected gamer."
Despite the fact that reputable cash has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public gamblers are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
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While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with several bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has approached somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.
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"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, however I presently welcome any Boise State money."
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Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded cash pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A a little higher bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The total has actually gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest relocation of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
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What caused the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
earlhayward754 edited this page 2025-02-13 10:46:31 +08:00